Workers of the world, unite!
IMPERIALIST WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST: A MANIFESTATION OF THE CONTRADICTIONS OF CAPITALISM
Since February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel have been systematically bombing Iran, and Iran has responded by striking U.S., Israeli, and regional targets that host U.S. military bases. This war has erupted at a time when negotiations were underway between the U.S. and Iran, and when the mediators (Oman) believed an agreement was close at hand.
However, it was precisely in light of this circumstance that decisions were accelerated within the command hierarchy of the ruling faction of the U.S. bourgeoisie, so as not to miss the opportunity to launch an attack on Iran. And to add to the apparent paradox, this decision was made by the faction that had come to power promising not to start wars in general, much less in the Middle East, and which had been propelled to power as a result of the exhaustion of the previous faction’s attempt at diplomatic-military expansion.
What led to the outbreak of this war? What moment does it represent in the course of capitalism? What does it mean for the world working class?
The inexorable economic determinism
The specific sequences of events that lead to certain historical outcomes—involving individuals and their expressions of will and justifications for their actions—may at first glance appear to be coincidental or anecdotal.
But chance occurs only at the intersection of necessary processes, and the resulting forces of this entire seemingly—and even actually—anarchic system inevitably prevail in the sense determined by these necessary processes, by the economic laws that govern the material reality of the development of the productive forces, above and even against the apparent direction of those actions, wills, and justifications.
What is seen as the result of decisions made by certain individuals is nothing more than the manifestation of deeper, underlying necessary processes that determine not only the actions, will and statements of these individuals, but also the specific framework in which they must develop and the consequences of that development.
The inexorable relative overproduction
The course of capitalism follows the inexorable path of the OVERPRODUCTION of capital: the overproduction of commodity capital, productive capital, and money capital, which carries with it the specter of the TENDENCY OF THE RATE OF PROFIT TO FALL (Capital, Volume III, Section III).
Following the epileptic resumption of production after stoppages during the 2020 lockdowns, relative overproduction reemerged, manifesting itself in a deflationary trend, a surge in debt and in speculative capital, and a return to falling interest rates by central banks. Transportation prices continued their downward trend, and overproduction was also evident in the energy sector.
Oil reserves had reached their highest level since 2021, with 8.21 billion barrels in storage, amid constant warnings of a future decline in demand for fossil fuels in general and oil in particular. The falling cost of “renewable” energy has led to negative energy prices becoming a recurring phenomenon
Overproduction is exacerbating the trade war
All this overproduction strangles the rate of profit, which is the single driving force behind capitalist production. However, this overproduction does not occur in a vacuum, but rather within a context of fierce competition among capitalist imperialisms, which, in turn, unfolds within a historical context marked by the already concluded expansion of capitalism to every corner of the globe, the shift of capitalism’s center of gravity to Asia, and the rupture of the post-World War II division of the world, with the rise of more recently formed imperialisms and the decline of the older ones.
The epicenter of this overproduction lies in Asia, from where the DEFLATIONARY avalanche of goods floods the global market, steamrolling the rest of the imperialist powers. This is what is leading to the escalation of the trade war, in which the older imperialist powers (and in particular the US) are trying to defend themselves by erecting tariff walls against this VOLCANO they helped create, in an attempt to reverse the downward trend in their rate of profit.
War is a need of the capitalist system
War is not the result of the pathological psychology of certain individuals; it is a need of the capitalist system. Under capitalism, military war plays a necessary role as a continuation of commercial war and as the only means of settling the new division of the world; but above all, it serves as a necessary regulator of the overproduction of commodities and means of production, which must be cyclically destroyed in order to relaunch the profit rate and a new cycle of accumulation: “the equilibrium would be restored under all circumstances through the withdrawal or even the DESTRUCTION of more or less capital. This would extend partly to the material substance of capital (…) And thus the cycle would run its course anew. (…) For the rest, the same vicious circle would be described once more (…)” (Capital, Volume III, Chapter XV, K. Marx).
Capitalism needed another shock, and war is necessary to determine which portion of surplus capital must be sacrificed: “The class, as such, must inevitably lose. How much the individual capitalist must bear of the loss, i.e., to what extent he must share in it at all, is decided by STRENGTH and CUNNING” (Capital, Volume III, Chapter XV, K. Marx).
The trials and tribulations of the tariff bully
The decline of the US as the hegemonic capitalist power and the retreat forced upon them by the development of productive forces in other now-capitalist regions has been reflected in the consciousness of the American bourgeoisie in two ways: on the one hand, the attempt to maintain or expand its diplomatic and military positions, and on the other, the sublimation of this retreat—imposed by material reality—as if it had been a voluntary act.
The faction of the bourgeoisie advocating a walled-in retreat regained control of the United States after the failure of the attempt by the faction advocating diplomatic and military expansion. Various sectors of the US bourgeoisie joined forces in this renewed version of the walled-in withdrawal, bringing together and integrating the interests of the oil sector, the financial sector, the major tech platforms, and the US-based Latin American bourgeoisie.
The tariff offensive launched with the bombastic “liberation day” has followed a trajectory in which the tariffs actually imposed or “agreed upon” were substantially lower than those initially announced, only to succumb to the resistance of the bourgeois social body itself and be ultimately overturned by US courts, now facing lawsuits from thousands of US companies.
But the key outcomes of this process have been the US capitulation in the face of Chinese imperialism’s counteroffensive (the rare earths embargo, sanctions against companies, etc.) and the fact that it has forced the other competing imperialist powers to strengthen their ties, thereby unblocking agreements and rapprochements that had been stalled for years (EU-Mercosur, EU-India, India-China, etc.).
A bellicose and annexationist bully withdrawal
This latest reissue of the walled-in withdrawal has incorporated elements of diplomatic and military expansionism, serving as a fig leaf for the limitations and shortcomings of its own approach, in an attempt to revive the fading specter of its military might. Examples of this include the revival of the Monroe Doctrine to try to regain influence in Central and South America, threats to annex Greenland, the bombing of seven countries in less than a year (Venezuela, Syria, Iraq, Somalia, Nigeria, Yemen, Iran), intervention in Venezuela to control oil production, and the unleashing of war against Iran.
The United States established its hegemony in the capitalist world through the bombings of Hamburg and Dresden, as well as the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Since then, US imperialism has sought to demonstrate its terrorist capabilities to the world again, with diminishing success: in 1990 (the first Gulf War), in 2001 (Afghanistan), and in 2002 (Iraq). The tail-between-the-legs withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 showed the world—and the US bourgeoisie itself—its own inability to keep its army deployed on the ground. On each occasion, the US is less able to force its “allies” to participate in or facilitate its military actions. The Azores Pact between the US, the UK, and Spain is a thing of the past, and now the latter two imperialist countries either obstruct or reluctantly cooperate with military operations.
But, as we have seen, US actions are driven by deeper causes that necessitate and dictate the destruction currently taking place, and that also determine the limits, consequences, and future developments of these actions.
The role of the Strait of Hormuz
The US has started this war by trampling on all its allies in the region (except Israel), offloading on them the losses resulting from the disruption of their oil supply due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and dragging them into the consequences of a war that is a blow to their attempts to develop investments beyond the oil sector: airlines, data centers, tourism, technology, financial centers, logistics hubs, etc.
Much of the oil leaving the Gulf is headed for Asia in general and China in particular, and the blow is aimed at them as well. However, China has been preparing by previously increasing its coal and oil reserves (purchased at a discount from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela), as well as deploying a massive solar and wind energy network and phasing out fossil fuels in as many areas as possible (for example, electric vehicles). Those being particularly hard hit by US actions are the other Asian countries, which the US would like to court but can do nothing but trample on.
Meanwhile, although a sharp rise in oil prices will also affect the US, a moderate increase actually benefits the country by allowing it to revive unprofitable facilities, serving as an incentive to market newly acquired Venezuelan oil, and enabling it to sell its own oil at higher prices. Hence the importance of which specific portion of the world’s oil supply is immobilized and blocked—in this case, in the Strait of Hormuz.
European imperialism, in turn, will also feel the consequences of rising oil and gas prices (which it purchases largely from the US). With reserves down to a minimum, European imperialism is discovering that achieving energy independence from Russia has only made it dependent on the US. To make matters worse, the US has lifted sanctions on Russia so that it can sell its oil to India.
It is important to remember that the use of oil prices as a means of exerting pressure—or their manipulation as a result of US pressure—is one of the main reasons that led the rest of the capitalist world to shift toward non-fossil fuels. Current events can only push the global bourgeoisie even further in this direction.
Once again, the US's inability to dominate and act as a reliable ally has been laid bare; this is yet another chapter in the US's decline.
Capitalism is heading toward world war
But this war is also part of the PREPARATION FOR WORLD WAR. All the imperialist powers of the world are already engaged in a frenzied arms race. The main victim of the carnage they are preparing will be the world proletariat—first as meat for exploitation in production and then as cannon fodder in the imperialist war.
The only way to oppose the wars that capitalism produces is the resumption of the class struggle against our ‘own’ bourgeoisie, the rupture of the national interclassist front (in the belligerent countries and in the rest). For this we need to fight against the organizational and ideological influence exerted by the bourgeoisie through state-integrated unionism and through parliamentarism, developing an extensive network of solidarity and struggle on the labor union level, outside the tentacles of the State, in which the International Communist Party has gained a decisive influence.
In order to carry out its historic mission, the working class needs the International Communist Party which should gather the most advanced and determined part of the proletariat, unifying the efforts of the proletarian masses, directing them from the struggle for contingent interests and results to the general struggle for the world revolution, for the transitory establishment of the revolutionary dictatorship of the proletariat towards a classless society, without private property, without wage labor, without state, without mercantile and company regime.
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNIST PARTY - "THE INTERNATIONALIST PROLETARIAN"– March 15, 2026
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